Introduction

The recent brief but significant visit of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) to India marks another important milestone in the steadily deepening India–UAE relationship. The visit produced major economic and strategic announcements, including the intent to establish an India–UAE Strategic Defence Partnership, a first of its kind for India in the Gulf region. This signals a qualitative shift in ties that have traditionally been driven primarily by trade, investment, energy, and the Indian diaspora. However, this move also comes at a time of extraordinary geopolitical volatility in West Asia and South Asia, making it imperative for India to proceed with both ambition and caution.

Outcomes of the Visit

The visit delivered several tangible economic and strategic signals of growing convergence between the two countries.

• Both sides committed to doubling bilateral trade to USD 200 billion, underlining the centrality of economic ties.

• A USD 3 billion LNG deal was signed, strengthening India’s long-term energy security.

• The UAE announced increased investments in India, including in Gujarat, reinforcing its role as a major capital partner.

• Most notably, there was an announcement of intent to conclude a framework defence agreement, paving the way for a structured defence partnership, even though the precise contours are yet to be finalised.

Together, these outcomes show that the relationship is moving beyond commerce into the realm of strategic and security cooperation.

Why the UAE Matters Strategically to India

The UAE is already one of India’s most important partners in West Asia.

• It is:

  • India’s third largest trading partner

  • Second largest export destination

  • Seventh largest foreign investor

• India’s first bilateral trade agreement in the Gulf was signed with the UAE in 2022, highlighting the special place Abu Dhabi occupies in India’s regional strategy.

• The move towards defence cooperation marks a significant evolution:

  • From a relationship anchored mainly in trade, energy, and diaspora links

  • To one that now includes security and strategic coordination

This reflects a broader Indian effort to engage the Gulf not just as an economic space, but as a critical strategic theatre.

A Region in Turmoil: The Geopolitical Context

The timing of this defence push is crucial, because the wider region is going through a phase of intense instability and realignment.

• The broader West Asian and South Asian environment is marked by:

  • Tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia

  • A personal and strategic rivalry between MbZ and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS)

  • Ongoing power struggles in Sudan

  • Protests and internal pressures in Iran

  • An uncertain and fragile ceasefire in Gaza

  • U.S. threats of intervention and constantly shifting regional alignments

• Adding to the complexity:

  • Saudi Arabia is reported to be exploring a mutual defence pact with Pakistan

  • Riyadh’s outreach to Turkey also signals fluid and unpredictable alignments

In such an environment, even seemingly bilateral moves can have wider regional repercussions.

Why India Needs to Be Careful

India’s deepening defence engagement with the UAE is being watched closely in the region.

• Some actors may interpret it as:

  • The beginning of a new military alignment

  • Or as India taking sides in intra-Gulf or regional rivalries

• This is risky because:

  • India’s interests in the Gulf are not limited to the UAE

• The stakes are enormous:

  • Nearly 10 million Indians live and work in GCC countries, making the region critical for remittances and social stability

  • The Gulf remains a vital energy source, especially at a time when sanctions and geopolitical tensions limit India’s options elsewhere

• Any perception that India is tilting too far towards one camp could:

  • Complicate relations with other key partners such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or Iran

  • Put diaspora and energy interests at risk

Connectivity and Strategic Projects Under Threat

The current regional instability also casts a shadow over India’s long-term connectivity and geoeconomic ambitions.

• Key projects include:

  • Chabahar Port in Iran

  • The International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

  • The India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)

• These initiatives:

  • Are central to India’s vision of becoming a connectivity and trade hub

  • Depend on cooperation from multiple Gulf and West Asian actors

• Any serious deterioration in regional stability, or sharp polarisation between rival camps, could:

  • Delay or derail these projects

  • Undermine years of diplomatic and strategic investment

The Strategic Logic Behind India’s Cautious Approach

India’s foreign policy in West Asia has traditionally been guided by:

• Strategic autonomy

• Multi-alignment rather than exclusive partnerships

• Avoidance of entanglement in regional rivalries

The emerging defence engagement with the UAE needs to be seen within this broader framework:

• As a calibrated expansion of cooperation, not a military alliance

• As a signal of trust and shared interests, not bloc politics

• As part of a diversified regional strategy, not a pivot away from other partners

Way Forward

Going ahead, India will need to:

• Balance its deepening defence ties with the UAE while:

  • Maintaining strong and independent relationships with other Gulf countries

• Avoid being drawn into regional rivalries or power struggles

• Protect core interests, including:Energy security, safety and welfare of the Indian diaspora, Long-term connectivity and trade corridors

• Continue to emphasise:

  • Strategic autonomy

  • Issue-based partnerships

  • Flexible and non-exclusive diplomacy

In a region as volatile as the Gulf and West Asia, prudence is not weakness—it is strategic wisdom.

Conclusion

The deepening India–UAE relationship, including the move towards defence cooperation, reflects India’s growing strategic confidence and its recognition of the Gulf’s importance beyond economics. However, the fragile and fluid geopolitics of the region leave India with very little room for error. While engagement is necessary, alignment must be avoided. India must continue to “tread lightly”, combining ambition with restraint, so that short-term gains do not compromise long-term interests in energy security, diaspora welfare, regional connectivity, and strategic autonomy. In West Asia, as in much of geopolitics, careful balance is not a choice—it is a necessity.